Report Nr. 3489 An Evaluation of the Tetracycline Survey for Estimating Michigan's Upper Peninsula Black Bear Population

The Michigan Department of Natural Resources uses population estimates to assess population status and determine harvest permit quotas for black bear management. The tetracycline survey uses a 2 occasion mark-recapture design to derive a population estimate for the bear population of the Upper Peninsula. We evaluated the survey to identify bias in the estimate and violation of assumptions in the surveys procedure. We also evaluated the survey for efficiency in procedures and methodology and appropriate scale of application. We examined the surveys data both statistically and geographically, and compared surveys data to harvest data. We also simulated surveys conditions to identify the potential magnitude of biases. We make recommendations to minimize the effects of violating surveys assumptions and to improve surveys efficiency.